While growing up my parents subscribed to a daily newspaper. Back then in-depth news was something you had to pay for. During the past 30 years newspapers have suffered, many closed, while most have found it increasingly difficult to compete against… free. The Internet brought free news in such volume that many people found it hard to justify subscribing to daily newspapers. The Internet also had a major impact on numerous other industries. Cable companies lost most of their stranglehold on in-home entertainment. YouTube democratized various types of content creation. Cooking videos, travel videos and all manner of Do It Yourself videos are available for free on YouTube.
Are there any parallels with physician care? Physicians used to be patients’ primary source of health information. Nowadays, people look up diseases and conditions online, learning more in a few minutes than their doctors would ever have time to explain. More than half of Americans (58.5%) used the Internet to look up heath information in 2022. Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to make diagnosis even easier. Microsoft founder, Bill Gates even thinks AI will be able to replace your doctor in 10 years:
- Bill Gates said that AI will replace doctors, teachers, mental health professionals and more within the next 10 years while appearing on The Tonight Show to promote his debut memoir Source Code
- The Microsoft co-founder also said with the increased role of AI, humans will not be needed for “most things”
Gates believes as computing power and the accuracy of AI become better, it will rival or even surpass what humans can do. Here is more about what Gates had to say:
“So the era we’ve come to is sort of the vision that computing was expensive and it basically became free,” Gates said. “The era that we’re just starting is that intelligence is rare, you know, a great doctor, a great teacher. And with AI, over the next decade, that will become free. Commonplace, you know? Great medical advice, great tutoring.”
“And it’s kind of profound,” the tech billionaire continued, “because it solves all these specific problems, like, we don’t have enough doctors or, you know, mental health professionals.”
Will AI do to physicians what the Internet did to newspapers? It’s unlikely. Newspapers are not protected by licensure the same way physicians are. For instance, physicians are the only group authorized to practice medicine. Most prescriptions must be ordered by a physician. Most medical services, like x-rays, lab tests must be ordered by a physician.
There are other reasons to doubt that free or low-cost AI chatbots will put doctors out of work. There has been a lot of talk recently about how AI will transform society in ways harmful to workers. After all, the Industrial Revolution reduced the demand for skilled artisans, who made cloth, clothing and other products that began to be mass produced. Those directly affected were harmed when cheaper goods flooded the market and competed with theirs. Yet, society benefited from cheaper goods. The Industrial Age did not put ditchdiggers, wagon team drivers and lumberjacks out of work by allowing one man to do the work of a dozen or more. Rather, workers became more productive.
In another interview reported in Harvard Magazine, Gates claimed “Intelligence will be completely free.” One application is medical diagnosis.
“It’s very profound and even a little bit scary — because it’s happening very quickly, and there is no upper bound,” Gates told Brooks.
Gates envisions AI-powered tools that can provide primary-care diagnostics, reducing dependence on overburdened medical professionals. “Eventually,” he noted, there will be no shortage of doctors, “and the machine will probably be superior to humans—because the breadth of knowledge that you need to make some of these decisions really goes beyond individual human cognition.” This shift, he argued, is not merely about efficiency; it’s about equity. In developing nations, where doctor-to-patient ratios remain abysmally low, AI could bridge the gap, bringing world-class diagnostic capabilities to those who need it most.
Gates’ talk about free intelligence and the capacity for AI models to outperform human physicians is beginning to sound like provocative soundbites. Were these words merely intended to catch the attention of reporters, who will help him sell his new book, Source Code? Probably. However, officials should prepare for the day when AI can boost access to care without allowing the health care system to bottleneck it in ways that benefit the establishment more than consumers.
Read more at:
- People: Bill Gates: AI Will Replace Doctors, Teachers in Next 10 Years
- Harvard Magazine: Bill Gates on AI and Innovation