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The Goodman Institute Health Blog

The Biggest Risk Factor for Cancer is Not What You Think

Posted on June 17, 2025 by Devon Herrick

Cancer is a veritable plethora of different diseases. There are over 100 diverse types of cancer. Cancer is one of those diseases that sends shivers down the spines of most Americans. Americans overestimate their chance of getting cancer, but it is still a common worry. For instance, because cancer runs in my family, I recently took a test that looked for biomarkers of multiple cancers from one blood sample. 

Cancer is a growth industry, not just in the United States but around the world. The global oncology market is projected to rise from $225 billion in 2024 to $668 billion by 2034. That is nearly a 3-fold increase in just 10 years. Oncology drugs are among the most profitable drugs for Big Pharma. The revenue from oncology drugs far exceeds the revenue from other categories of drugs. In 2021 oncology drugs accounted for about 17% of all drug revenue worldwide. By 2026, this proportion is expected to rise to 23%, a near doubling of revenue from cancer drugs sold.

What exactly is cancer? According to the National Cancer Institute:

Cancer is a disease in which some of the body’s cells grow uncontrollably and spread to other parts of the body. 

Cancer can start almost anywhere in the human body, which is made up of trillions of cells. Normally, human cells grow and multiply (through a process called cell division) to form new cells as the body needs them. When cells grow old or become damaged, they die, and new cells take their place.

Sometimes this orderly process breaks down, and abnormal or damaged cells grow and multiply when they shouldn’t. These cells may form tumors, which are lumps of tissue. Tumors can be cancerous or not cancerous (benign). 

There are numerous risk factors for cancer. Obesity is a risk factor, and leading a sedentary lifestyle is too. Some of the better-known risk factors are drinking, smoking and sun exposure. An article in The Conversation says the leading cause of cancer is not what you’d expect, however. And furthermore, it is unavoidable:

If you were to ask most people what causes cancer, the answer would probably be smoking, alcohol, the sun, hair dye or some other avoidable element. But the most important risk factor for cancer is something else: aging. That’s right, the factor most associated with cancer is unavoidable — and a condition that we will all experience.

In 2025 the American Cancer Society estimates there will be more than 2 million cancer diagnoses, claiming the lives of about 618,120 men and women. Cancer is primarily a disease of old age. For Americans age 0 to 49, your probability of getting cancer during those years is only 3.4%, or about 1-in-29. Between the ages of 50 and 64 the chances rise to 11.3%, or about 1-in 9. Between the ages of 65 to 84 the odds of getting cancer rises to nearly one-in-three (31.3%). At age 85 and older your risk is 18.7%. All told, about 40% of Americans will get cancer at some time in their lives. 

Cancer odds increase with age and more than 70 million Baby Boomers are growing old. Something like 10,000 a day are turning 65. Baby Boomers have stressed institutions wherever they have gone. Think schools, universities, housing… and now oncology. There are enormous barriers to cancer care, and cost is a huge one, but there are others:

Another reason is good old inertia. Our clinical care model in oncology has remained mostly intact for over three decades. It is primarily a single physician-driven model. Although modern therapies for cancer have emerged at a breathtaking pace and have been introduced into clinical practice, it is much harder to change the model of care, particularly for strategies such as geriatric assessment that are harder to implement than a new drug or surgical/radiation technique.

Increasingly cancer care is tailored to each individual’s genetic makeup. An individual community doctor is unlikely to provide the complex specialized care available at large cancer centers.

Although we cannot do anything about getting old, recent research has found that about 40% of cancers could be prevented with better lifestyle and healthy behaviors. These are what you might expect: watch your weight, stay active, drink only in moderation, do not smoke and stay out of the sun.

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For many years, our health care blog was the only free enterprise health policy blog on the internet. Then, when the NCPA closed its doors, the health blog stopped as well.

During this five-year hiatus no one else has come forward to claim the space. So, my colleagues and I have decided to restart the blog in connection with the Goodman Institute. We invite you and others to use this forum to share your views.

John C. Goodman,

Visit www.goodmaninstitute.org

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