The per-gallon prices for different grades of gasoline are posted outside a Conoco station Thursday, May 14, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Conservatives called it “Bidenflation” when President Joe Biden’s economic policies pushed the inflation rate to its highest point in decades. Now that President Trump’s economic policies are reigniting inflation, it’s only fair we call it “Trumpflation.” Although it may not reach the level that Bidenflation hit, it’s not going away soon.
When prices started rising in the early days of the Biden administration, as the COVID-19 pandemic was rounding the corner and would soon start to decline, the Federal Reserve Bank suggested the price increases would be “transitory” — primarily a result of supply constraints.
Many businesses, including manufacturers, shippers and warehouses, were just reopening or barely operating, making it hard to get products to market. Those shortages, plus quickly rising gasoline prices, pushed many prices up. The Fed thought it was similar to when a natural disaster occurs and gasoline and even some grocery prices go up because of high demand and vendors can’t restock. Typically, prices return to normal within a few days or weeks when the crisis passes.
And post-pandemic inflation might also have subsided quickly except Biden and Democrats began pumping money into the economy — starting with the American Rescue Plan. Pouring trillions of taxpayer dollars into an economy struggling with shortages is a recipe for inflation. And many economists, including some Democrats, warned Biden about his over-the-top government spending.
The official inflation rate was 1.4 percent the month Biden entered the White House in 2021. By May, it had climbed to 5.0 percent and then to 7.0 percent by December, topping out at 9.1 percent in June 2022. Inflation then began a slow but steady decline, referred to as “disinflation.” The inflation rate was 3.0 percent in January 2025 when Trump entered the White House.
Inflation continued its slow decline, to 2.3 percent by that April — close to the Federal Reserve Bank’s 2.0 percent target inflation rate. But then in May 2025, inflation started going up again, to 2.4 percent, 2.6 percent in June and July, 2.9 percent in August and 3.0 percent in September.
Hmmm, did anything happen in April 2025 that might have reversed inflation’s downward trend? Why, yes — Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs program, announced on April 2. Remember “Liberation Day?” It had to be one of the dumbest economic policies we’ve ever seen.
As the Tax Foundation explains, the massive reciprocal tariffs were never based on the tariffs other countries imposed on the U.S. And there was a great deal of concern the tariffs would damage the U.S. economy. Fortunately, Trump quickly began postponing, scaling back and adjusting them multiple times, minimizing the economic damage.
Even though Trump repeatedly asserted that other countries would pay the tariffs, the fact is U.S. companies and individuals paid them — as several economic studies confirmed. Now that the Supreme Court has ruled the tariffs illegal, the federal government is in the process of refunding the money — to U.S. companies and individuals, not foreign governments.
Trump’s tariffs stopped the disinflation trend as U.S. companies began incorporating part or all of the tariffs in their prices. Though inflation remained relatively low — 3.0 percent or lower — that’s no longer the case. In March the inflation rate jumped to 3.3 percent and 3.8 percent in April.
Worse yet, the Producer Price Index, which measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers, jumped to 6.0 percent in April. If we take out the more volatile food and energy prices, it’s still up 4.4 percent.
Obviously, the oil shock from the war with Iran spurred the increase. Trump is assuring us that prices will drop quickly once the Strait of Hormuz opens again. “Our inflation is just short-term.” Trump has said. “As soon as this war is over, you’re going to see inflation go down to probably 1.5 percent.”
That almost certainly won’t happen. It took a year for the inflation rate to drop from the peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022 to 3.0 percent in June 2023, even though gasoline prices dropped even faster, from a high of $4.71 a gallon in June 2022 to $2.99 in six months.
At this point we don’t know if Trumpflation has reached its peak or if there’s more to come. But even if the Strait opens and the price of gasoline falls, Trump is imposing more tariffs, keeping upward pressure on prices.
The good news is that inflation is unlikely to hit the peak it did during Biden’s presidency. But the bad news for Republicans is that Trump’s policies mean inflation will likely remain elevated for months. Voters are not happy about that and may express their frustrations come the November midterm election.
Read the original article on TheHill.com