Fertility in American has fallen to 1.6 babies per woman. The replacement rate is 2.1. You can read more about it here. Women are also waiting longer to have children, which often means having fewer of them. They are also waiting longer to marry if they marry at all. The median age for marriage was 20-years old in 1960, compared to almost 29 today. Teen births among women age 15 to 19 peaked at 96 births per 1,000 women in 1957. The teen birth rates began to decline afterwards and was 50 per 1,000 teen women by 1986. By 2023 the rate was at a historic low of 13 births per 1,000 teenage women. That is a success story considering that waiting to have children until you’re married (and possess job skills) is the surest way to avoid a life of poverty for you and your child.
A recent New York Times article discussed two different recent studies that tie falling fertility rates in the United States to smartphones. Yes, those minicomputers that we use to check email, Facebook and even gas prices when the red fuel reserve light illuminates on our instrument panel. From NYT:
Two new papers, one published Monday and the other in May, are the first academic endeavors that test whether the smartphone was a cause.
They are the most recent efforts to explain the sweeping fertility rate decline in the United States and other countries over the past 20 years. Researchers have already looked at contraception use, abortion rates, rising levels of female education and even the popular television show “16 and Pregnant.”
Their paper, published in the National Bureau of Economic Research, found that the iPhone caused as much as half of the fertility decline between 2007 and 2011. The most pronounced effects were among young people aged 15 to 24.
Theories: Young people began to socialize on the phone rather than in person, when sex could happen. They could substitute pornography on their phone for sex. They could use their phone to learn about contraception.
Couples report hesitancy to have children because the cost of having children is high. Housing costs are high, which can limit how many children couples have. The cost of daycare averages about $343 a week.
Access to family planning means fewer accidental pregnancies. Women are also pursuing higher education at rates greater than men and becoming breadwinners, which makes childbearing more difficult. Financial insecurity is a major reason for declining fertility rates, but cultural factors and societal changes play a role.
Fertility rates are falling worldwide. An anthropologist found similar reasons for not having children worldwide, but found reasons vary within education groups. Educated women wanted a hands-on partner willing to help co-parent, whereas less educated women mostly just wanted a dependable partner. Both men and women wanted the space to raise a family but not always the mortgage that goes along with it. One of the primary factors is family support. The following is from New Scientist:
The cost of living and finances around childcare were important across the board, but, interestingly, not as much as other things like your partner or other sources of social support. This makes sense, because if you have a good support network to rely on, the cost of childcare can be reduced. For instance, if grandparents can take care of the children one or two days a week, that can translate into a fair whack of savings.
Demographers say it hasn’t been just one thing: it’s many factors. Usual factors such as economic security and space – a house with a yard – are a factor people report but historically couples still had children despite a lack of space. Childcare is another reason as families have moved farther away. Women working also means less time to raise children. Later marriage and better birth control obviously contribute. Also, a portion of the fall in fertility is due to the fall in teen births. A factor not often mentioned is cultural. As a society, it is no longer women’s primary job to bear and raise children. They have other options that take up their time.
NYT: Two New Studies Ask: Did the iPhone Cause Birthrates to Decline?
CDC: National Vital Statistics Reports Volume 74, Number 3, March 6, 2025
WSJ: Americans Are Having Fewer Babies. What Does That Mean for the Country?