Casey Mulligan in the Wall Street Journal:
I estimate that Mr. Biden’s insurance, regulatory and tax policies as implemented will eventually combine to reduce the nation’s labor income by 5% to 6.5%, with an additional reduction in the long term due to education policies in blue states. In two years under the Biden administration, the labor market is already falling short. Real employee compensation per adult … is 3.3% below the pre-pandemic trend.
I estimate that degrowth policies since 2020 will cumulatively reduce Medicare and Social Security tax revenue by at least $400 billion—and perhaps as much as $900 billion. The tax base will shrink even more if Mr. Biden succeeds in levying higher wealth and business taxes.
I estimate that … remote-learning policies reduced prospective Medicare and Social Security tax revenue by $118 billion in present value.