Bad as the recent Trustees Report is, the reality is likely to be much worse. According to Jim Capretta, the current projection is based on Obamacare constraints that are unlikely to be continued. For example:
- The actuaries estimate that about 73 percent of hospitals already lose money when caring for Medicare patients, and that future cuts will drive the percentage up to close to 80 percent by 2027.
- One-third of hospitals currently incur losses across all of their patients owing to their sizeable negative margins for their Medicare lines of business.
- For physicians, Medicare fees are already well below what is offered by private insurance and could fall below those paid by Medicaid by the mid-2030s
See the Trustees projection (based on Obamacare constraints) versus a more likely scenario in the featured graph.