Per the Urban Institute, as of April 2023, there were about 18 million ineligible people enrolled in Medicaid. The approximate annual cost of ineligible enrollees: $100 billion or more.
[That’s about $1,000 for every household in America.]
According to Urban’s estimates, a majority of them—9.5 million—will gain employer coverage. In fact, roughly half of those people are dually enrolled right now in Medicaid and employer coverage, meaning taxpayers have been paying insurers for Medicaid enrollees who have workplace insurance. Urban expects 3.2 million children to transition from Medicaid to the Children’s Health Insurance Program and about one million people to enroll in a heavily subsidized exchange plan. Of the 18 million, 3.8 million—or about one-in-five of the people who lose Medicaid—will go uninsured. The Congressional Budget Office has made similar projections, estimating somewhat more uninsured.