Some People Are Exceptional in Old Age… Others, Not So much

The risk of mental decline increases with age. Dementia and mental decline have been in the news lately largely because of the presidential election. President Biden will be 82 by the time the next president is sworn in, while former President Trump will be 78. By the time the next presidential term ends, they will be 86 and 82 respectively.

Cognitive impairment is underdiagnosed by as much as 90% some studies suggest. A Columbia University study found that nearly one-third of Americans over age 65 either have dementia or mild cognitive impairment, although only about 10 percentage points of those have dementia. The incidence of dementia is falling slightly even as the number of Americans susceptible to mental decline rises with an aging population. Drug companies are working on lab tests and other diagnostic tools to identify dementia early but currently even doctors miss many of the clues.

The Wall Street Journal highlights the case of Vernon Smith, who shared the 2002 Nobel prize in economics (I don’t want to hear people tell me there is no such thing as a Nobel Prize in Economics, because neither Alfred Nobel nor his executors created such from his estate. And while we’re at it, Alfred Nobel was not the Merchant of Death. His invention, dynamite, was too unstable for military operations. He should have been called the Merchant of Mining. His most enduring legacy is the blasting cap. Dynamite is hardly used anymore.)

Professor Smith works eight hours a day, seven days a week from his home office in Colorado Springs. Smith, who is 97, told WSJ:

“I still have a lot of stuff to do. I want to keep at it,” said Smith, who won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002.

There are things you can do to lessen your chances of developing dementia, but not entirely prevent it. Exercise and physical activity are the most important, along with a healthy diet, a heathy weight and mental exercise. Oh, don’t forget good genetics.

There isn’t a silver bullet to maintaining mental acuity or warding off dementia, scientists of aging say. But a combination of genetics, healthy lifestyle habits and factors such as cleaner air and good education have been linked to prolonged mental agility.

We may not be able to pick our parents, but we can stay active mentally and physically. Scientists have studied those who age well both mentally and physically. They tend to keep busy:

“They have a purpose. They have things they want to go out and do every day,” Andersen said.

Smith says his work and his family keep him motivated and driven.

“I want to go to at least 106,” he said.

Rudolph Marcus still works at Caltech at age 100. He too won the Nobel Price (chemistry). Charlie Munger famously worked until he died at age 99, just over a month short of his 100^th birthday. His partner Warren Buffett is active at 93. There are numerous other examples of senior executives with advanced age. Media mogul Sumner Redstone was at the helm of CBS until age 92.

The anecdotes of Smith, Marcus, Munger, Buffett and Redstone are just that, anecdotes. They do not constitute evidence beyond five exceptional data points compared to millions of others who are nothing like them. Also, they stayed active because they apparently could and were effective at their jobs. Not every senior is so fortunate. It’s a chicken and egg sort of problem: those exceptional people remained active, likely benefiting from exercising their mental capacity. They also had exceptional mental capacity and great genetics to begin with. That doesn’t mean anyone else can do it. A few months ago I read about a man in his mid 80s whose family is suing JP Morgan bank for allowing him to invest and ultimately lose $50 million on sophisticated investment strategies that he no longer had the mental capacity to manage. According to his family, by age 78 he was starting to show signs of dementia but kept actively managing his risky investment strategy that began to decline.

What does this mean for the presidential election? It’s a little bit concerning. Depending on your perspective, throughout his senate career Joe Biden was either a moderate or a ”walking, talking weather vane. Wherever political winds blew, he followed.” Yet in recent years he’s turned more progressive. I’ve often wondered whether the 20-something progressive interns in his administration aren’t able to exert undue influence over him.