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The Goodman Institute Health Blog

The Future Looks Bleak

Posted on February 24, 2023February 24, 2023 by John C. Goodman

To ensure that the federal government’s borrowing capacity does not become exhausted within the next 25 to 50 years, the growth in federal health care spending must be reduced relative to baseline spending. I provide two scenarios that would provide additional borrowing capacity. These would require federal spending on Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and the insurance subsidies to be reduced by at least 7.5 percent of baseline spending, or 0.5 percent of the economy, over the 2025 to 2034 budget window.

Beginning structural reforms sooner rather than later will allow a path of continuous growth in the budget for health programs while avoiding much larger, drastic cuts in the future as well as problematic future tax increases, inflation, and higher interest rates.

Paul Winfree, Paragon Health Institute study

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For many years, our health care blog was the only free enterprise health policy blog on the internet. Then, when the NCPA closed its doors, the health blog stopped as well.

During this five-year hiatus no one else has come forward to claim the space. So, my colleagues and I have decided to restart the blog in connection with the Goodman Institute. We invite you and others to use this forum to share your views.

John C. Goodman,

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