The basic economic analysis is straightforward. The price of gas has to be high enough to balance supply and demand. A rebate amounts to a subsidy for demand. Raising demand will force the price to go higher. Because supply is relatively inelastic, it will turn out that, relative to the price that would have prevailed without the rebate, the price will be driven up by close to the amount of the rebate. The main beneficiaries of a subsidy for gasoline demand will be producers.
And a gas tax holiday will work the same way. It will reward producers. Any consumer benefit will tend to be illusory.
Greg Mankiw says much the same thing.
Art Laffer, who is usually right about almost everything, is way off base on Fox News on this one.
BTW, the same principles apply to a “health care rebate.”